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Vol. IV, Issue #3 - March 2016


** The Marc Pelletier Challenge
Part III - The Pelleiter System
Time to Pick a Team & Learn the System
**

(This is the third part of a series of articles and reports that will are be made over the next
few months dealing with the Marc Pelletier System to draft teams in the newly named on-line
SOM Baseball 365 system for leagues using the 20XX seasons plus the upcoming
utilization of the Pelletier System by Wolfman Shapiro as he joins a 2015 season in April.)


(
Comments from the Wolfman:  In our December 2015 issue, we introduced to you one of the most successful on-line SOM Baseball gamers, Marc Pelletier.  Marc offered to share with our members a discussion of how he has created a system to evaluate each player for the draft of a team in a Baseball 365 league or a tournament that he has joined in order to decide which players he will select (draft) for his team using the 20XX (2000-2015) year cards.  So in this is third article of this series in which we are going to focus upon the learning of his system, my preparation to join a 2015 League on Baseball 365 and to work with Marc's guidance and recommendations which players to draft for my team.

In our two previous issues this year (2016), Marc discussed how to evaluate the hitters and pitchers to decide who you should consider to draft when you join such a league as stated. Alternately, his system could also be used for the on-line tournaments in Baseball 365 that include this era of teams. But now, its time to go over the strategies I discussed with Marc, using and learning his system, to prepare to draft a team for myself in April, just as I did last year when I worked with Bruce Foster for the All Time Greats Leagues. 

This article will include Marc's comments and description (via what he calls his Blue Print) of why he recommended certain players for me to pick and will include my comments along the way, discussing my thoughts and feedback, how to implement his system as I prepared to create a new version of my Skokie Wolfmen in Baseball 365. In addition, I asked Marc to help me to create and focus upon the following type of team, if this was possible:

A) a hitter team with good power, playing in a ball park that has a high ball park home run rating -- in a discussion with Marc we decided Milwaukee's Miller Park would be the best choice to implement his system. Therefore in various tables shared in the second part of this report, you will see his rating or evaluation of the best players to try to obtain that will produce the best results for our team.  Marc's system has the ability to rank the players for any ballpark offered in the year of cards you use for your league or tournament.

B) if I was going to go with a hitters, high HR rated ballpark ( that means high diamonds) then I wanted a pitching staff which had on their cards little or any chance for a homerun and little if any ballpark diamonds on their card.

C) finally as I can, perhaps with backup and utility players to have late inning defense and maybe some speed and stealers.  Since the league I am joining has an 80 Million Salary Cap, it is a hard juggling act to try to be strong in all areas of the game - points A) and B) have the top priority.

(Note - the first key you must decide in any league you join is what type of team you like to manage, I have found in the leagues I have played in, I had better success with the type of team I am setting up for the league I will join - too many times when I had a team with better pitching and defense but little power or on-base, we wouldn't be able to score enough runs to go for the gold, this is just based on my personal experiences and preferences ...)

Now, before we get very involved with the next aspect of the Pelletier challenge, if you need to catch up with this series or you missed Marc's interview or the first two articles submitted by Marc discussing key aspects of his system, here are the links to the other articles in previous USBN issues:

http://www.ultimatestratbaseball.com/USBN-12-2015/MarcPelletier-December2015.htm  (interview)

http://www.ultimatestratbaseball.com/USBN-1-2016/MarcPelletier-January2016.htm  (discusses hitters)

http://www.ultimatestratbaseball.com/USBN-2-2016/MarcPelletier-February2016.htm  (discusses pitchers)

My goal in offering this series of articles with Marc is of course, with our hope that by following a system like this, which has an analysis of the players by using a spreadsheet with specific formulas (as Marc will show below with the example tables he has provided), that it can help our members experience a greater degree of success in their Baseball 365 game play for 2016 which means more fun and enjoyment!!)


Time to Make a Team
(The Pelletier System for drafting your team)

Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter, Marc Pelletier photo, author of unique player evaluation system for Baseball 365

The Pelletier Blue Print for a 20XX Team

(Wolfman:  Every GM has to have a philosophy to guide how they build their teams, whether you prefer to go with a stronger hitters team or pitching and small ball or some combination in-between.  Here is the blue print that Marc sent me how he builds his team.  Included in this section are my comments related to the team I plan to build that I had discusses with Marc about. You will see my remarks under various parts of the blue print.  Following the blue print, Marc created for our readers a number of tables (spreadsheets) that are based on his unique evaluation system to show what players have the greatest value for the park I will be selecting and as well as another park which is more geared toward pitching for comparison ..)

Key Strategies to Decide first before You Go into your Draft

1.  Select an extreme stadium

  1. Extreme here means that it departs from normal stadium on which the ratings are set (single L/R=9/9; homeruns L/R=9/9). It could be a stadium that gives an edge to one side of the plate (lefty or righty) or that it brings homeruns towards more extreme values (20 or 0).

    (
    Wolfman:  We decided to go with Miller Park which has a Ballpark Homer L/R 1-16)

2.  Select a group of starters that appear as "good values" in my salary ratings

  1. It should be either 4 *SP or 5 (non*) SP
     

    1. I allow an exception to this rule, which is to select 1 extremely good *SP, and 4-5 cheap SP (typically, when I go this way, I select a few pitchers who have extreme one-side variation (for example 7R or 7L)).

      (
      Wolfman: - Marc is speaking about 4 asterisked starters who need a 3 day rest -- since there is no usage in Baseball 365, if you have these ace starters they could easily pitch 300 innings each; OR to go with 5 non-asterisked starters (4 days rest) for which most likely the salary of such starters will be much cheaper. He gives an exception of going with just one good asterisked starter too as a 3rd alternative.  Now for our team in Miller Park, to find 4 asterisked starters with little or no home runs on their card, would be way too expensive and wouldn't leave enough money to get the good hitters we will need, therefore our strategy will be to draft 5 non-asterisked starters with low or little ballpark homers on their cards.)

3. Select one extremely good reliever who will be your core reliever, taking both set-up and closer duty. Select of the best value among the top 10/15 relievers.

(
Wolfman: - Since we are going with a hitting team with power, we will be able to afford one of the top 10-15 relievers but the rest of our relievers will have to be in expensive and each have a unique ability. )

4.  Select other relievers based on the stamina of the starting squad

  1. Determine the stamina of my starting pitchers squad in order to determine the needs of the bullpen.

    1. For example, if I plan to go with 4 *SP (7) of relatively high quality, then the need of my bullpen will consist of only one extremely good reliever and a bunch of cheap relievers who will have specific role:

      1 *SP(7) of good quality 1 extremely good reliever who will setup and close

      1 *SP(7) of good quality 1 specialist vs left-handed hitters

      1 *SP(7) of good quality 1 specialist vs right-handed hitters

      1 *SP(7) of good quality 1 cheap closer in case my good reliever is unavailable

      1 cheap SP/RP who will mop-up 1 cheap all-around reliever (in the 1M-1.5M range)

      Analysis
      Starters will take charge of roughly 280 X 4 = 1120 innings

      My extremely good reliever will take charge of roughly 160 innings

      Whatís left (roughly 200 innings, many of which during blowouts) does not warrant that I spent high money for another outstanding reliever.

    2. If on the other hand I plan to go with a bunch of cheap starters with short stamina (typical S5/R), then I know I will need much more than one extremely good reliever. In that case, Iím likely to not have any specialist

      1 moderately good SP(6) 1 outstanding good reliever who will setup and close

      1 moderately good SP(6) 1 extremely good reliever for middle relief/set-up

      1 cheap SP(5) 1 moderately good reliever who can back up any of the two above (~1.5M)

      1 cheap SP(5) 1 cheap closer in case my outstanding closer is unavailable

      1 cheap SP(5) 1 cheap reliever R2-R3 who will assume mop-up role

      Analysis
      Starters will take charge of roughly between 160-200 innings X 5 = 850/900 innings; My outstanding reliever will take charge of roughly 160-180 innings. Whatís left (roughly 400 innings, most of it middle relief inning to make the bridge between my starters and my outstanding) are important and warrants I spent high money for another outstanding reliever. That reliever doesnít need to be a closer and it might be a good thing to take a R(2). In that set-up, I have no room for a lefty specialist (if I want one, I need to go with a bullpen of 11 pitchers, but it might be worth the investmentÖdepending on the divisional rivals)

    3. Consider the stadium when analyzing the needs for the bullpen. Pitchers get tired more quickly in Coors Field than in the AT&T.

    4. Donít forget that one frequent mistake by new owners is that they overspend for their relief (one typical example can be found here in a new league I am is here:

    http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1422607. That team tried to replicate the Cubs lineup, but in Strat, you donít need as much bullpen as in real-life especially if your starters are as good as they were for the Cubs)

For hittersí parks such as Coors or Miller park, I tend to go with a rotation that looks more like the second option above rather than the first option, which I used more in pitchers parks like At&T.

(Wolfman: So the route I felt to go in this last section was to follow section ii. - as I need to spend about 50 million of the 80 million allocated to building my team to the hitters and about 30 million to the pitchers. In the original Blue Print, I received, Marc made a recommendation on which pitchers I should take for my starters which I will reveal more when I join a league next month and draft my team ... ok in the next points, Marc looks at the hitters, the positional players ....)

5.   Go on and pick the best starting roster based on the "best values" as found in the spreadsheet

(
Wolfman: in the next section of this article, you will find some sample spreadsheets -- those spreadsheets are simplified version of a full sheet which ranks every player in the card set and offers a lot more statistical data on each player but we didn't want to confuse our readers. These spreadsheets that we will be sharing shortly, ranks the players by the salary value which Marc has calculated as their true value which is also determined by the Ball Park you select.  So Marc uses the salary values he has calculated to determine which hitters by position will be the most productive for your team in your home park.)

    1. Donít be afraid of high-injury prone players. There are ways to deal with them

    2. Make sure to have at least 4 solid offensive players. Ideally, my aim is to get 4 offensive players in my lineup who are among the top 25 best offensive cards vs each side (vs lhp and vs rhp).

    3. Itís better to have a somewhat unbalanced lineup (3 very strong hitter, 3 good hitters, 3 poor hitters) than a balanced lineup of 9 good hitters simply because players at the top of the lineup have more at-bats and are more involved in important at-bats.

    4. Consider that the 5th hitter will be involved in the most clutch situations. So itís a good idea to have a potential 5th hitter with good clutch rating.

    5. It is best to choose a lead-off who will be able to attract a hold by the pitcher. In the online game, runners are held---typically, any player with a runner with C rating or better will be held; they are even some D rated runners who will automatically attract the hold. Having a lead-off who can steal, though, is not for me something important, especially not in a hitterís park. I see the benefits of having a player with lots of stolen bases more down the lineup, with the weaker hitters.

    6. Ideally, the poor hitters should hit down the lineup and be very good fielders.

      (Wolfman: So Marc also gave me his recommendations for my positional players who follow these keys to the letter, as we will be going after 4 solid offensive players with platooning for the other positions and the best power hitters we can find at most positions.)

6.  Only starters and players used in a platoon should have a salary higher than 1M. Players whose role is only to backup starting pitchers should never be paid more than 1M.

    1. Bench players should all have a role (with the possible exception of the backup catcher). So try in the best world to have among your backups:

      1. A pinch-runner

      2. A pitch-hitter vs lhp (especially if you have poor hitters in your starting lineup vs lhp)

      3. A pitch-hitter vs rhp (especially if you have poor hitters in your starting lineup vs rhp)

      4. A defensive replacement (especially if some of your starting players are poor defensively)

    2. If you have a high-injury prone player, you might want to spend 0.80M or 0.90M if that player is much better than a 0.50M, but donít overspend 1M+ on players who will have only limited role (even if itís 200 AB, itís still limited).

      1. One exception to the preceding rule is if you go with a bunch of injury-prone players (if three of your starters or more have high risk of injuries). You may spend higher money if youíre confident that this backup will play almost a full season with the all the injuries that will take place.

(Wolfman: one of the keys to get the team you want in Baseball 365 is you have to find productive players who don't cost so much - to fill in your team ... this is an art form - so this section here is very important to fully understand as you prepare for your draft.  You can find little gems amongst these backup and utility players for 1 million or less, if you look carefully - the lowest value a player has on Baseball 365 is $500,000.)

7. Platoons can be good investment, but donít go over a roster of 15 players to make room for them.

    1. Typically, if your roster consists of 14 players, in a dh league, then you are set with 5 backups. Say you have a back-up catcher, an all-around backup infielder and an all-around backup outfielder (and letís further assume that your dh can backup your first baseman). This leaves you with 2 potential platoons---3 if your catchers also form a platoon. Typically, I donít go over 3 platoons. I donít think itís worth the investment to go with a bench of 17 players in order to have 5 or 6 platoons.

8. If we go with a balance stadium in terms of left/right, we should aim at a balance lineup in terms of righty/lefty hitters
 



The Pelletier Evaluation Spreadsheets
(to help decide which players to draft, summarized examples)

(Wolfman:  In this section are various spreadsheets Marc sent to me to help visually demonstrate,
how his system works and his method of valuing the worth of the players in the season that your
league will use. So the key to success, once you know which ball park you are playing in,
is to follow his blue print, and then work with his spreadsheet which will show you the value of
all the available players to determine the best collection of players for their value to help you build a
playoff bound team.  In his spreadsheets he shows the value of the players based on Miller Park - a
homerun hitters park, and AT & T which is a pitchers park along at times with a neutral park.  Also 
for each spreadsheet we have defined what each column represents so you can follow all the numbers.)


Overall Short Summary of Hitters using Marc's System
(in the next table are the top seven hitters as ranked by runs created for catcher and all infield positions -
to give you an overview of the key values related to each hitter that Marc keeps track of and calculates to
see which players have the best value for each Ballpark you might play in. One key field is Value vs.
SOM Salary. {the salary value which Marc calculates minus the salary that SOM provides.)
 

SOM salary millions Hitters name BAL POS Runs created (neutral) WARP (neutral) Neutral_ salary
millions
value vs SOM sal Miller_ salary
millions
AT&T_ salary
millions
Offense RC (neutral)      (648 PA) Offense RC (actual usage) Running RC Defense RC
                           
8.57 Posey,B E c- 80.3 5.0 8.08 -0.49 $ $8,28 $7,88 58.9 66.2 1.1 13.0
4.78 Martin,R 3L c- 52.8 2.3 5.07 0.29 $ $5,34 $4,96 43.3 41.2 1.9 9.6
5.33 Vogt,S* 3R c- 51.5 2.2 4.84 -0.49 $ $5,17 $4,54 45.0 49.9 1.3 0.3
3.95 Gimenez,C 2L c- 42.8 1.3 3.93 -0.02 $ $4,38 $3,45 47.3 47.2 3.4 -7.8
3.71 Perez,S 4R c- 42.4 1.2 3.89 0.18 $ $4,20 $3,66 26.8 27.5 -0.4 15.3
3.53 D'Arnaud,T 2L c- 41.7 1.2 3.87 0.34 $ $4,30 $3,66 52.9 40.6 0.6 0.5
4.01 McCann,B* E c- 39.9 1.0 3.58 -0.43 $ $3,99 $3,25 35.7 36.4 -1.5 5.1
                           
11.67 Goldschmidt,P 2L 1b 115.9 8.6 12.03 0.36 $ $12,45 $11,68 88.2 103.1 7.8 5.0
10.34 Votto,J* 1L 1b 97.2 6.7 9.94 -0.40 $ $9,87 $10,00 79.9 93.5 4.3 -0.7
8.55 Rizzo,A* E 1b 80.5 5.1 8.08 -0.47 $ $8,53 $7,65 60.9 72.4 5.3 2.9
8.33 Cabrera,M E 1b 76.1 4.6 7.61 -0.72 $ $7,72 $7,47 78.3 75.4 0.0 0.7
8.23 Davis,C* 2R 1b 73.7 4.4 7.34 -0.89 $ $7,84 $6,85 64.7 71.7 0.7 1.3
6.95 Belt,B* E 1b 68.9 3.9 6.82 -0.13 $ $7,08 $6,55 55.0 58.5 4.9 5.5
7.67 Hosmer,E* 2R 1b 66.7 3.7 6.55 -1.12 $ $6,63 $6,43 51.0 57.3 3.9 5.5
                           
8.50 Gordon,D* 1L 2b 76.6 4.7 7.68 -0.82 $ $7,15 $8,35 39.1 43.9 10.7 22.0
7.42 Altuve,J 4L 2b 67.4 3.7 6.69 -0.73 $ $6,39 $6,91 41.2 47.1 9.8 10.6
7.23 Kinsler,I 1L 2b 63.0 3.3 6.20 -1.03 $ $5,74 $6,73 38.3 40.7 4.6 17.6
7.01 Panik,J* 1R 2b 62.5 3.3 6.13 -0.88 $ $5,88 $6,48 46.8 36.6 2.9 23.0
5.63 Phillips,B 1R 2b 61.8 3.2 6.06 0.43 $ $5,75 $6,46 30.7 33.3 7.6 20.9
5.89 Lemahieu,D E 2b 61.8 3.2 6.05 0.16 $ $5,47 $6,69 31.2 34.3 7.6 19.8
5.54 Forsythe,L 4L 2b 60.6 3.1 5.93 0.39 $ $5,84 $5,97 44.7 48.3 4.4 8.0
                           
8.44 Lindor,F+ 2L ss 75.5 4.6 7.57 -0.87 $ $7,41 $7,68 47.4 49.1 7.5 18.9
6.87 Crawford,B* E ss 65.4 3.5 6.45 -0.42 $ $6,81 $6,21 40.9 41.8 4.2 19.4
5.80 Correa,C 1L ss 63.3 3.3 6.21 0.41 $ $6,53 $5,88 50.9 53.9 6.8 2.6
6.19 Bogaerts,X 2L ss 57.6 2.8 5.60 -0.59 $ $5,02 $6,21 40.3 43.6 6.1 7.9
4.72 Cozart,Z 3L ss 50.5 2.1 4.84 0.12 $ $5,05 $4,73 38.3 25.2 2.8 22.6
4.85 Gregorius,D* 1R ss 49.1 1.9 4.63 -0.22 $ $4,21 $5,07 23.9 24.8 3.7 20.5
4.53 Tulowitzki,T 3L ss 47.4 1.7 4.47 -0.06 $ $4,51 $4,51 40.3 38.5 1.1 7.9
                           
9.69 Donaldson,J 2L 3b 92.8 6.3 9.46 -0.23 $ $9,91 $9,06 72.2 85.0 2.5 5.3
8.19 Machado,M 3R 3b 74.7 4.5 7.46 -0.73 $ $7,96 $6,99 54.3 63.2 6.2 5.3
6.86 Carpenter,M* 3R 3b 67.5 3.7 6.64 -0.22 $ $7,09 $6,19 62.2 69.1 2.1 -3.7
7.00 Arenado,N 4R 3b 64.3 3.4 6.30 -0.70 $ $6,77 $5,85 53.1 58.6 -0.7 6.4
6.12 Bryant,K 2R 3b 64.3 3.4 6.30 0.18 $ $6,54 $6,03 58.3 64.9 5.5 -6.1
5.64 Moustakas,M* 1L 3b 56.6 2.7 5.47 -0.17 $ $5,74 $5,18 50.0 52.8 0.5 3.2
5.89 Longoria,E 5L 3b 55.4 2.5 5.35 -0.54 $ $5,58 $5,27 38.8 42.0 2.3 11.1
                         
SOM salary - Salary as provided by SOM in Baseball 365

Hitters name

BAL - SOM Characterisation of the hitting balance L/R

POS - best position (or least harmful) vs. replacment defense

Runs created - The runs that the player is expected to create (usage included)

WARP - Wins above replacement player

Normal_ salary - Salary estimated by my ratings in a neutral stadium

value vs SOM sal - The difference of salary between my ratings (neutral) and SOM

Miller_ salary - Salary estimated by my ratings with home games played in Miller

AT&T_ salary - Salary estimated by my ratings with home games played in AT&T

Offense RC - Offensive runs contribution (usage NOT considered, neutral stadium)

Offense RC (Actual usage) - Offensive runs contribution (injuries and based on estimated PA)

Running RC - Running runs contribution

Defense RC - Defensive runs contribution

                         


Top 10 Hitter Bargains for Miller Park
(top 10 affordable {bargain} players based upon their SOM salary who would be very 
productive players to draft for this ballpark, plus which show a much higher value
based upon the Ratings Salary that Marc calculates for their true value.)
 

SOM salary (millions) Hitters name BAL POS Runs created (Miller) WARP (Miller) ratings salary (millions)
1.72 Stubbs,D 3R cf 39.0 0.9 3.47
1.54 Taylor,M 1L lf 37.4 0.7 3.28
1.61 Gallo,J* 3R dh 36.5 0.6 3.18
1.83 Dickerson,C* 4R dh 36.4 0.6 3.18
1.93 Alvarez,P* 1R dh 36.3 0.6 3.18
2.16 Souza,S E rf 37.3 0.7 3.25
0.92 Herrera,D E 2b 27.6 -0.2 2.07
1.01 Drew,S* E 2b 29.4 -0.1 2.21
2.17 Orlando, P 1R rf 37.4 0.7 3.30
1.43 Butler, J 1R dh 30.1 0.1 2.56
             
             
(Miller Park is used by the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Ballpark Ratings are: Single L/R 1-8; HR L/R 1-16)
 
WARP -  Wins Above Replacement Player
 
Ratings Salary - Salary Marc gives to the player based upon the ball park played in
 
Run Contribution - the higher the value the more productive is the hitter, the formulea was given in Marc's January 2016 article, see link above .... 



Top 10 Hitter Bargains for AT & T Park
(top 10 affordable {bargain} players based upon their SOM salary who would be very 
productive players to draft for this ballpark, plus which show a much higher value
based upon the Ratings Salary that Marc calculates for their true value.)

 

SOM salary (millions) Hitters name BAL POS Runs created (Miller) WARP (Miller) ratings salary (millions)
1.03 Hamilton,B+ 2L cf 31.0 0.1 2.45
0.99 Ramirez,J+ 1R 2b 30.3 0.0 2.29
0.54 Sogard,E* 2R 2b 26.7 -0.3 1.81
0.78 Robinson,S 1R lf 26.3 -0.4 1.76
0.98 Segura,J 2L ss 27.0 -0.3 1.93
1.65 Andrus,E 2L ss 31.9 0.2 2.58
1.16 Pompey,D+ 2L lf 29.3 -0.1 2.18
1.06 Peterson,J* 3R 2b 28.6 -0.1 2.08
1.04 Galvis,F+ E ss 29.2 -0.1 2.15
1.37 Lagares,J 2L cf 29.4 -0.1 2.19
1.46 Aybar,E+ 1R ss 31.6 0.2 2.51
             
             
(AT&T Park is used by the San Francisco Giants:
The Ballpark Ratings are: Single L 1-11; R 1-5; HR L/R 1)
 
WARP -  Wins Above Replacement Player
 
Ratings Salary - Salary Marc gives to the player based upon the ball park played in

Run Contribution - the higher the value the more productive is
the hitter, the formulea was given in Marc's January 2016 article,
see link above
.... 


Top 10 Players by Position for Miller Park
(In the hitters table shown in this section of the report, the value next to each player is the
Miller calculated Salary that Marc comes up with minus the value of the Salary that SOM assigns
to the players listed here which you must purchase them at to draft him onto your team. 
The two tables belows show all the positional players sorted by the player that has
the highest value of the so mentioned calculation or what Marc calls Value vs. SOM Salary)
 

Catchers 1b 2b 3b ss
D'Arnaud,T 0.77 Blanks,K 1.12 Schoop,J 1.10 Duffy,M 0.70 Correa,C 0.73
Martin,R 0.56 Shaffer,R 1.03 Travis,D 0.78 Wright,D 0.51 Cozart,Z 0.33
Perez,S 0.49 Goldschmidt,P 0.78 Espinosa,D+ 0.70 Kang,J 0.48 Escobar,A 0.31
Gimenez,C 0.43 Freeman,F* 0.59 Dozier,B 0.66 Franco,M 0.45 Russell,A 0.09
Phegley,J 0.32 Moreland,M* 0.51 Hernandez,C+ 0.52 Bryant,K 0.42 Tulowitzki,T -0.02
McCann,B* -0.02 Wallace,B* 0.42 Forsythe,L 0.30 Valencia,D 0.35 Crawford,B* -0.06
Norris,D -0.07 Duda,L* 0.33 Kipnis,J* 0.26 Frazier,T 0.35 Cabrera,A+ -0.33
Holaday,B -0.09 Smoak,J+ 0.33 Pedroia,D 0.19 Turner,J 0.31 Iglesias,J -0.57
Perez,R -0.16 Colabello,C 0.31 Goins,R* 0.19 Carpenter,M* 0.23 Simmons,A -0.57
Vogt,S* -0.16 Shaw,T* 0.3 Phillips,B 0.12 Donaldson,J 0.22 Hechavarria,A -0.63
                   
Top 10 Players by Postion for Miller Park

(Each Player's SOM Salary is 3 Million +, The
Value is the difference between Marc's Calculated Salary
for Miller Park verse the Salary assigned to the player by SOM)

 
cf lf rf dh
Trout,M 0.93 Grichuk,R 1.11 Pence,H 1.31 Braun,R 1.07
Pham,T 0.81 Rasmus,C* 0.62 Reddick,J* 0.66 Sano,M 0.84
Pederson,J* 0.79 Upton,J 0.55 Harper,B* 0.64 Eaton,A* 0.68
McCutchen,A 0.51 Rosario,E* 0.47 Granderson,C* 0.5 Gosselin,P 0.49
Upton Jr,M 0.43 Byrd,M 0.26 Springer,G 0.41 Abreu,J 0.37
Fowler,D+ 0.27 Peralta,D* 0.2 Stanton,G 0.33 Fielder,P* 0.27
Kiermaier,K* 0.26 Gutierrez,F 0.14 Calhoun,K* 0.28 Schwarber,K* 0.13
Dyson,J* 0.26 Guyer,B -0.27 Piscotty,S 0.15 Dietrich,D* -0.21
Bradley Jr,J* 0.24 Gordon,A* -0.28 Gonzalez,C* 0.15 Cruz,N -0.26
Jones,A 0.19 Hernandez,E -0.28 Inciarte,E* -0.02 Rodriguez,A -0.29

Top 10 Players by Postion for Miller Park

(Each Player's SOM Salary is 3 Million +, The
Value is the difference between Marc's Calculated Salary
for Miller Park verse the Salary assigned to the player by SOM)


Overall Summary of Marc's Evaluation System for Starting Pitchers
(The table below shows the top thirty plus starting pitchers sorted from high to low for their calculated
salary by Marc based on their performance within Miller's Park, along with various other calculations. )
 

SOM salary millions Pitchers name END Expected innings (neutral) RAAverage (neutral) run saved WARP (neutral) Ratings salary (neutral) millions value vs SOM sal Ratings salary (Miller) millions Ratings salary (AT&T) millions
9.89 Arrieta,J S(7*) 331 2.38 92.46 8.78 10.98 1.09 11.33 10.81
10.00 Greinke,Z S(7*) 330 2.38 92.09 8.75 10.94 0.94 11.26 10.75
9.48 Kershaw,C* S(7*) 327 2.63 82.21 7.81 10.09 0.61 10.40 10.09
8.20 Keuchel,D* S(7*) 314 2.87 70.64 6.71 9.09 0.89 9.17 8.44
7.39 Cole,G S(7*) 304 3.24 56.23 5.34 7.85 0.46 7.95 7.10
8.08 Gray,S S(6*) 275 3.08 56.16 5.33 7.84 -0.24 7.83 7.64
7.49 Degrom,J S(6) 229 2.80 54.31 5.16 7.68 0.19 7.75 7.62
7.11 Scherzer,M S(7*) 319 3.46 50.95 4.84 7.39 0.28 7.06 7.63
6.86 Sale,C* S(7*) 309 3.42 50.77 4.82 7.38 0.52 6.93 6.92
6.52 Price,D* S(7*) 302 3.44 49.10 4.66 7.23 0.71 7.17 6.65
6.50 Bumgarner,M* S(7*) 305 3.47 48.35 4.59 7.17 0.67 6.48 6.85
6.66 Garcia,J* S(6) 211 3.12 42.82 4.07 6.62 -0.04 6.94 6.27
6.56 Harvey,M S(6) 220 3.21 42.39 4.03 6.57 0.01 6.53 6.57
6.09 Archer,C S(6*) 258 3.72 34.34 3.26 5.77 -0.32 5.65 4.99
4.90 Kluber,C S(7*) 298 3.91 32.77 3.11 5.61 0.71 5.36 5.02
5.54 Lackey,J S(7*) 292 3.90 32.72 3.11 5.61 0.07 5.24 5.01
4.50 Cueto,J S(7*) 295 3.91 32.52 3.09 5.59 1.09 5.32 4.94
5.64 Hahn,J S(6) 203 3.57 31.31 2.97 5.47 -0.17 5.79 4.91
5.63 Hamels,C* S(7*) 294 4.02 28.83 2.74 5.22 -0.41 5.00 4.50
5.37 Tomlin,J S(6) 225 3.83 27.82 2.64 5.12 -0.25 5.07 5.63
4.76 Eickhoff,J S(7) 237 3.89 27.33 2.60 5.07 0.31 4.77 4.92
5.23 Duffey,T S(6) 194 3.73 26.54 2.52 4.99 -0.24 4.98 4.42
5.34 Syndergaard,N S(6) 212 3.84 26.09 2.48 4.94 -0.40 4.67 4.82
4.85 Lester,J* S(7*) 291 4.10 25.94 2.46 4.93 0.08 4.64 3.58
5.58 Estrada,M S(6)R(3) 209 3.84 25.85 2.46 4.92 -0.66 4.97 5.04
5.17 Warren,A S(6)R(3) 197 3.82 24.86 2.36 4.82 -0.35 4.83 4.10
4.92 Iwakuma,H S(6) 208 3.88 24.64 2.34 4.80 -0.12 4.41 4.84
4.87 Verlander,J S(7) 229 4.00 23.75 2.26 4.71 -0.16 4.58 4.35
5.15 Tanaka,M S(6) 214 3.96 23.33 2.22 4.67 -0.48 4.62 4.89
4.06 Buchholz,C S(6) 194 3.89 22.96 2.18 4.63 0.57 4.84 3.97
                     
SOM salary - Salary as provided by SOM

Pitchers name

END - Endurance

Expected innings (neutral) - Seasonal expecting innings in SOM

RAAverage (neutral) - Runs allowed average (similar to ERA, but includes runs allowed through errors, wp/pb/balks)

Run Saved - Runs saved in a season

WARP (neutral) - Wins above replacement player

Ratings Salary (neutral) - Salary based on my ratings for neutral stadium

Value vs SOM Sal. - The difference of salary between my ratings (neutral) and SOM

Ratings salary (Miller) - Salary based on my ratings for Miller stadium

Ratings salary (AT&T) - Salary based on my ratings for AT&T stadium

 

Top 10 Starting Pitchers at Miller Park and AT&T Park
(The table below shows three classification of starting pitchers ranked by the difference of the salary value
Marc calculates for these pitchers in these two parks vs. the salary given by SOM. The three classifications
are which 3 day rest {asterisked} pitchers are in the top ten, non asterisked Starting Pitchers which
cost $3million or more and the best cheap starting pitchers you can draft who are
not asterisked {or require 4 days of rest}.)
 

Top 10 *SP in Miller Top 10 (non*)SP  Top 10 cheap  Top 10 *SP in AT&T Top 10 (non*)SP  Top 10 cheap 
    3M+ in Miller non* SP in Miller     3M+ in AT&T non* SP in AT&T
Arrieta,J 1.44 Buchholz,C 0.78 Ross,J 0.67 Arrieta,J 0.92 Morrow,B 0.39 Hughes,P 0.85
Greinke,Z 1.26 Blanton,J 0.48 Fernandez,J 0.65 Greinke,Z 0.75 Strasburg,S 0.34 Nuno,V* 0.83
Keuchel,D* 0.97 Morrow,B 0.45 Perez,M* 0.64 Kershaw,C* 0.61 Tomlin,J 0.26 Marcum,S 0.78
Kershaw,C* 0.92 Ramirez,E 0.44 Corbin,P* 0.62 Scherzer,M 0.52 Hendricks,K 0.17 Haren,D 0.78
Cueto,J 0.82 McCullers,L 0.40 Rea,C 0.61 Teheran,J 0.46 Blanton,J 0.17 Holland,D* 0.71
Price,D* 0.65 Hendricks,K 0.30 Tropeano,N 0.52 Cueto,J 0.44 Eickhoff,J 0.16 Smyly,D* 0.66
Cole,G 0.56 Strasburg,S 0.28 Ray,R* 0.49 Bumgarner,M* 0.35 Degrom,J 0.13 Kennedy,I 0.66
Kluber,C 0.46 Garcia,J* 0.28 Wood,A* 0.48 Keuchel,D* 0.24 Ramirez,E 0.05 Chen,W* 0.57
Samardzija,J 0.25 Martinez,C 0.26 Richard,C* 0.47 Samardzija,J 0.24 Milone,T* 0.04 Vargas,J* 0.53
Sale,C* 0.07 Degrom,J 0.26 Chen,W* 0.46 Shields,J 0.23 Harvey,M 0.01 Morgan,A* 0.51
                       
The value next to the starting pitcher is the difference between what salary Marc has calculated should receive in the two parks listed verse the salary that SOM has assigned to this pitcher.  3M+ meanings SOM has given these pitchers a salary of $3 million or higher.


Top Relief Pitchers sorted by Marc's Salary Evaluation for Miller Park
(The final table below shows the top 35 ranked relief pitchers as ranked by the
Ratings salary calculated by Marc for each relief pitcher working in Miller Park.)
 

SOM_ salary millions PITCHERS RAAverage (neutral) WARP (neutral) Ratings salary (Neutral) millions Ratings salary (Miller) millions Ratings salary (AT&T) millions
5.87 Davis,W 1.74 5.5 6.98 7.18 6.93
5.24 Miller,A* 2.23 4.5 6.15 6.20 6.20
4.85 Capps,C 2.28 3.8 5.48 5.60 5.43
4.28 Watson,T* 2.28 3.7 5.38 5.57 5.22
5.30 Jansen,K 2.34 4.6 6.20 6.05 6.48
4.57 Givens,M 2.37 4.4 6.07 6.17 6.04
4.50 Melancon,M 2.35 4.3 5.95 5.96 5.93
5.10 Familia,J 2.41 4.2 5.85 5.83 5.83
4.32 Manship,J 2.43 4.2 5.85 5.91 5.71
4.98 Rodriguez,F 2.49 4.2 5.86 5.75 6.03
3.90 Strickland,H 2.47 3.5 5.12 5.22 5.10
3.94 McGee,J* 2.49 3.8 5.42 5.46 5.45
4.54 Ziegler,B 2.51 3.8 5.47 5.60 5.36
3.78 O'Day,D 2.54 3.5 5.17 5.29 5.09
4.37 Harris,W 2.55 3.6 5.27 5.22 5.41
4.32 Strop,P 2.57 3.5 5.14 5.26 5.07
4.35 Robertson,D 2.59 3.9 5.55 5.47 5.71
4.53 Uehara,K 2.59 4.0 5.68 5.64 5.64
4.54 Goeddel,E 2.66 3.8 5.49 5.59 5.40
3.94 Britton,Z* 2.67 3.5 5.16 5.28 5.05
3.86 Smith,C 2.72 3.4 4.99 5.14 4.86
3.54 Betances,D 2.69 3.3 4.90 5.00 4.84
3.06 Siegrist,K* 2.79 3.0 4.62 4.75 4.53
3.26 Maurer,B 2.78 2.8 4.45 4.59 4.37
3.58 Cecil,B* 2.85 3.1 4.75 4.85 4.69
3.95 Benoit,J 2.91 2.9 4.55 4.44 4.76
3.36 Robles,H 2.91 2.8 4.47 4.32 4.75
3.43 Gilmartin,S* 2.89 3.3 4.89 5.01 4.79
3.78 Blazek,M 2.89 3.3 4.92 4.97 4.90
4.19 Kimbrel,C 2.93 3.2 4.79 4.66 4.99
3.67 Osuna,R 2.97 3.2 4.81 4.80 4.86
3.67 Rondon,H 2.96 3.0 4.66 4.80 4.55
3.46 Gregerson,L 2.98 3.1 4.70 4.67 4.80
3.26 Madson,R 2.96 2.8 4.45 4.54 4.40
           
SOM salary - Salary as provided by SOM
 
Pitchers - pitcher's name
RAAverage (neutral) - Runs allowed average (similar to ERA, but includes runs allowed through errors, wp/pb/balks)

WARP (neutral) - Wins above replacement player

Ratings salary (neutral) - Salary based on my ratings for neutral stadium

Ratings salary (Miller) - Salary based on my ratings for Miller stadium

Ratings salary (AT&T) - Salary based on my ratings for AT&T stadium


(
Wolfman's Final Comments: So dear readers, this should give you an idea of the Pelletier System.  It is based upon his blue print and supported by a very detailed spreadsheet that shows on separate pages for the hitters and pitchers, the various key data and evaluations based upon his own special formulas he has come up to share his salary value.  Then he factors in the ball park you select as your home field, and as his examples showed, the value of a player will change due to the park you play in.  The other key to building a team, which is where a gamers prior experiences will come into play, is to find the right combination of players, both stars, good players and backup/utility players which will fit into the plan you setup for your team and your team's salary cap.

Whether you try the Pelletier blue print or create one of your own, I have spoken to many Strat Baseball Gamers and the more experienced gamers who have played in leagues, tournaments or face-to-face, say you can win with any type of team if your heart is into it.  So I asked Marc, to help me using his system to create for a 2015 league a team as I described in the introduction. He has already given to me his recommendations, and you will find most of the players he suggested for the new Skokie Wolfmen team that will rise again in the Baseball 365 landscape, are mentioned in the tables shared in this article.

So thank you Marc, for being willing to share your insights and how your system works with our members.  Now, the next step will be sometime in April to excute this plan - while even though I will be consulting Marc with my selection of the players to draft (because Marc understands more deeply than I, the nuances of the Baseball 365 game), the managing of the team will fall to me, as it did last time when I worked with Bruce Foster. 

Therefore, the next article that you will read in this series in April will be about the players I drafted (including why we chose each one and their role, you already know the stadium I will be selecting) and if I was able to build the team via following the plan with an initial report about how the Wolfmen are doing (including team stats and my analysis).  But more than this, the goal of this next grand experiment is to see if the Pelletier System is duplicable and if so, then we hope at some future time to offer it in a form that others can use it as well (This could be you!!).

I hope you have enjoyed this series of articles so far.  Once again, if you wish to speak to Marc directly, you can reach him at his email at: marcalain.pelletier@gmail.com )

Wolfman

PS
- April, the month of my birth (soon to turn 61, hard to believe), will see a flury of new activities with the MLS starting ( see my other article this month ) on April 4th; also I plan to report next month what the new "Baseball Daily" game is like as I manage my beloved Chicago Cubs using this new powerful game add-on; we will be engaged in a new league via the Pelletier system on Baseball 365 and I hope to challenge the current ranking World's Champion of the Strat Tournament Player's Club, Pete Nelson who lives close by here in Seattle - so lot's of good stuff to come ... stayed tuned and good luck in your own leagues, replays, tournaments and the like ....




 

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Contained inside this exciting issue of Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter:
(to view the various interviews, articles, columns and special sections click on the links {underlined}
and this will take you to the appropriate webpage)
 

  RETURN TO NEWSLETTER MAIN PAGE

  INTERVIEW with ROGER ERICKSON, Ex-MLB Pitcher, Roger Erickson, for the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, talks with the Wolfman about his insights on the game of baseball and what experiences he had during his major league career, as we continue to interview more ex-MLB players which we recognize their names from their Strat-o-matic cards in past seasons.

  INTERVIEW/ARTICLE with KEN WENGER, Ken is a volunteer for the support group that works with Len Durrant and Gary Simonds who have been producing cardsets that work with the SOM Baseball Game for over 20 years that include computer rosters/teams from the Negro Leagues, Japanese Leagues and the National Association. Ken talks about his experiences being a part of this team and what it takes to make these computer card set images.

  STRAT WISE with MARC WASSERMAN -- commissioner of the Cyber Baseball Association (CBA) continues his new column sharing various perspectives on SOM Baseball. In this issue he discusses about the coming of "Baseball Daily", his many visits to the Game Company since he was young, and the recent video inteviews done with Hal Richman, John Garcia and Adam Rosen.

  ARTICLE with LARRY BRAUS -- Wolfman's old friend Larry, who he has known since the 1970's from Chicago and the early national conventions, as well as was an early contributor of our newletter in 2013, returns in this issues with some insights on former star players you shouldn't write off just yet ...

  ARTICLE with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO Wolfman discusses a totally new Computer (CM) based league he joins which is based upon salaries for the players with a salary cap, plus has a big focus on building your minor league players. Through this league he participates in his first time ever an on-line auction to add players for his team.  He reports about his experiences joining this league and the strategies he used to build a team made for the playoffs plus ....

  SOM BASEBALL LEAGUE REPORT with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO -- the editor of "The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" and 2012 CBA Champion, talks to members members of various Strat-o-matic Baseball Leagues that he has discovered on the internet about the history of their league and their experiences. This is the first time we get to speak to a League Commissioner and their Champion in the same month as we find out about the World Baseball League (WBL).  To read their interviews, click on the appropriate link below:

INTERVIEW with Jeff Chaput, WBL Commissioner, P-VI (Computer)
INTERVIEW with Ted Wesley, WBL Champion, P-II (Computer)

  SOM/MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL WORLD NEWS with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO, editor of "The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" roams the world for interesting news linked to SOM or MLB. For this month he shares some gems he found on the Strat-o-matic website and SOM's facebook page, offers another "Stat of the Week" bulletin by John Dewan talking about current relievers and gives the first report of a Strat Tournament Player's Club tourney held in early March in New Jersey.

  RECOMMEND ON-LINE SOM RESOURCES -- On-line Strat-o-matic and Baseball related websites
that offer amazing information, special tools and products to improve your game play that we strongly recommend. In most cases, we have had personal contact with these sources who agree with the principle to work together and help promote each other.

  BOOKS TO DIE FOR and Become a BASEBALL GURU -- This page is specifically about special books we are finding that either will expand your insights about the game of Baseball, help you in the creation of your current league teams or with your replays and learn more about the Strat-o-matic Baseball Game and Game Company's history.  We have a special arrangement with Acta Sports, who is a publisher of a number of great baseball books (including Bill James Handbooks) to offer for our members a 10% discount. We will continue to add more books to this page in the future as we uncover other gems our members should know about.


 




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