Baseball America
Prospect Handbook 2016
review by
Wolfman Shapiro
I am going to start off my
review by
sharing a statement that is made on the back cover
of the handbook:
WHY PROSPECTS MATTER:
In the 2011 Propsect Handbook, we detailed
the depth of the Royal's top-ranked farm
system, which we also featured on the cover
of the March 2011 issue of Baseball America
magazine. No team had placed nine players in
Baseball America's Top 100 Propects, and the
group -- both as big leaguers and through
trades -- helped from the core of the
Royals' 2014 American League pennant winners
and 2015 World Series champions. --- Turning
a losing franchise into a winner -- that's
why prospects matter.
As we stand today in early May (2016) when I
am writing this review, another team which
followed this same strategy, the Chicago
Cubs has the best record in all of major league
baseball - so this is why any strat manager
in any league that will allow you to draft these
young players should pay attention. Either
you have a chance to get one or more of
these young players before they receive
their SOM card or to
recognize which of these young players who
do have a card but only saw a limited action at the end of a
baseball season, could be the stars of
tomorrow. I use to never pay attention to
get young prospects on my league teams, but after 9
years of being a playoff contender, our older
players either were getting injured in real
life or just not
performing so we had no choice but had to rebuild and pay
attention to these future stars. So Youth is definitely the key
for us now and should be included in any
strategy to build a winning team in your
league.
Let's take a look at how this handbook is
organized and what information it has to
offer ....
The key to this handbook is that Baseball
America ranks the top 30 prospects for each
MLB team. Not only do they rank them
from 1 to 30, but they also give each
prospect a Grade from 40 to 75-80, where
75-80 is a franchise player (like Kershaw,
Posey, Trout) down to 40 which is a reserve,
swingman or a relief specialist. They
also offer a risk factor for each
prospect that speaks to
the prospect's ability to make
the major or if they are a high risk due to being injury prone
or they might not have good enough skills to
see the majors. This
rating goes from Safe to extreme, where Safe
is a player who will most likely will make the
team in 2016 and can make a strong contribution
and whereas, Extreme is for a prospect who will
struggle or have health problems. For
the 2016 Prospects the highest grade given was
"70"
which players like Corey Seager, Buxton, Gallo, Moncada
and Urias were such prospects who I saw received
this ranking.
At the beginning of the handbook, four
Basball American editors give their top 50
Prospect list (including Matt Eddy); next, the 30 MLB
baseball teams are ranked from 1 to 30 about
which team had the strongest farm systems with the
Dodgers (#1), Houston (#2), Atlanta (#3) and
Boston (#4) listed as the top four. Then the
remainder of the book is pretty much team by team
(alphabetically) an
overview of each MLB's franchise situation
with a listing of their top 30 prospects shown
in order.
Now turning to the pages of information
offered for each team. Various writers gave
a high level review of the status of each MLB team
as related to their farm systems. Then,
there is a list from 2006-2015 of the #1 top
prospect they had each year. Baseball America
also shared a list of all
the minor league franchises each MLB team
has. Before you meet the top prospects, there is a
summarized listing of who were the top 30
Prospects for 2016 and 2015.
Next, is a
summary of which of the current prospects
excel at various tools such as batting average,
fielding, speed, defense, pitching and
throwing arms. And finally in this
section there is a
projection what the 2019 lineup will be like for
that major league team so you can see which
prospects are expected to be starters within 3
years.
The next page is called the Minor League Depth page
and besides breaking down the top 30
prospects into their individual playing positions,
this page projects three key prospects for
2016 by: a) who will be the top player to make
the biggest impact in the majors; b) which
prospect could have a breakout season in the
minors that would bring him into the majors
and c) which prospect might be a sleeper.
This page also shows how many prospects were
home grown (brought up via this MLB team's
farm system) and how many prospects were
acquired via trades.
The following team page is called a "Draft Analysis
Page" which discusses the top prospects who
appeared in 2015, gives a quick summary of
the key prospects from 2012-2014, talks about the
Top Draft Picks (college players) selected
by this MLB Team from 2006-2015 and which
draft picks received the largest bonuses in
the club's history.
Above is an example of what information is
shared about each prospect of each
major league team. Here we see the Yankees
#2 ranked prospect for 2016 as he is
evaluated by Baseball American. We see
the BA Grade and Risk Factor, as well as
the stats of Gary Sanchez for the last three
years. The guide lets you know who
are the top prospects to pay attention to
and who you might wish to acquire.
The rest of this section for each Major
League Team then introduces who are
considered by BA the top 30 prospects. As
shown above, each prospect has a very detailed analysis
of the prospects capabilities along with
their Baseball
America Grade and Risk Factor rating. The
final information shows their performance
(as a hitter or pitcher) for the past 3
seasons including if they played in the
Majors as well as the Minors. The #1 prospect
of each prospect gets a full page analysis
while the rest of the prospects see about 1/3 of
a page. Also the #1 prospect of the
team is the only player to receive Scouting Grades as a
Pitcher or Batter.
In the back of the book is some extra
information as appendixes. The first
appendix discusses a few of the international players
who might switch to MLB (for example
Kenta Maeda was included) which includes
their
BA Grade and Risk Factor with a player
analysis.
The next appendix is called "Signing Bonuses"
and shows the college players drafted in the
first 3 rounds from 2013 -
2015 and what their signing bonus was. The next section shows the top
100 college prospects who are projected to be drafted
by the MLB teams in 2016 and a second list
has the top 100 high school prospects who
are projected to be drafted as well (meaning
they would go into professional baseball and not go to
college).
So what do I think about this handbook?
Wow, I think it has every detail one could
imagine on almost
every conceivable young player who could
eventually find his (or her?) way into the
major leagues. The only area which is weak
in my opinion, and this is not really
because these are young players, is linked
to all the international
players who are now coming into Major League
Baseball
each year. But these players are only being
sought out because they are veteran players
who have proven themselves in these other
leagues.
I think the advantage of having this handbook
is that it places into one place, the key
information you need to determine which are the best prospects out there
that could help your team. Sometimes
it is not about picking the top 5 or 10
ranked prospects, but to get a prospect who
will fill a whole on your team and be a
solid player for
the future.
For one of the leagues that I recently joined
which was built so our minor league players
are a key
element to building our teams, I went on-line
and copied thousands and thousands of young
players from various on-line sources.
However, you can't really tell how good these young players
could be just by seeing their performance in the
minors? As Don August said in his
interview for this issue, the majors and the minors are
like "Night and Day". Within the
handbook you get a very detailed
analysis of THE most significant 900 prospects which certainly should covers
enough young prospects to find the right
young player (or players) you seek.
Therefore, I definitely recommend this
guidebook to anyone who is trying to find
new talent to help build their current
league teams (based on the latest card sets)
and become a playoff bound team. You
just can't go wrong with the many hours that
were put in by the Baseball American
editors, to make such a handbook for us.