Strategies that produce
results
over
the
course
of
162
games
don’t
necessarily
translate
to
the
12
wins
required
to
taste
champagne
in
the
standard
three-round
Strat
playoff
format.
I
learned
this
the
hard
way
with
early
playoff
exits
in
each
of
my
first
three
Octobers
in
my
20-team
league.
Not
until
my
fifth
postseason
appearances
did
I
make
a
real
breakthrough,
and
not
until
my
seventh
did
I
bring
home
a
World
Series
ring.
Looking
back,
I
don’t
think
my
team’s
overall
talent
level
improved
over
time
as
much
as
shifting
priorities
allowed
me
to
become
a
better
roster
architect.
I
learned
to
maximize
each
of
the
25
spots
on
my
playoff
roster
and
to
edit
the
roster
in
such
a
way
that
emphasized
important
traits
for
postseason
success,
sometimes
at
the
expense
of a
few
regular-season
wins.
But
as
any
baseball
fan
knows,
even
the
best-laid
plans
can
go
astray.
That’s
because
the
difference
between
the
optimal
baseball
strategy
and
the
next-best
strategy
is
infinitesimal.
To
win
consistently,
the
manager
can’t
rely
on
one
great
personnel
decision
or
even
one
great
high-leverage
decision
in
the
heat
of
competition.
Instead,
the
successful
manager
must
stack
one
optimal
strategy
on
top
of
another
and
rely
on
the
cumulative
effect
of
those
decisions
to
carry
the
day.
I
will
share
some
of
my
philosophies
about
roster
construction
in
this
piece,
but
be
warned:
I do
not
consider
myself
a
master
dugout
strategist.
I’m
probably
about
average,
and
in
terms
of
credentials,
I am
entering
my
15th
season
in a
20-team
league,
and
I
have
eight
postseason
appearances
on
my
résumé.
I
have
managed
probably
less
than
half
as
many
Strat
games
as
most
newsletter
readers,
so
caveat
emptor.
1.
Consider
moving
your
best
hitters
to
higher
positions
in
the
lineup.
The
postseason
is
not
the
time
to
bow
to
tradition,
so
set
aside
the
notion
of
what
constitutes
a
"traditional"
lineup.
The
average
game
in a
20-team
Strat
league
sees
38
batters
per
side
make
a
plate
appearance
(my
league
averaged
38.1
PA
per
game
in
2015
and
38.5
in
the
preceding
two
seasons),
so
give
yourself
the
best
chance
at a
comeback
by
sending
your
best
hitters
to
the
plate
in
the
ninth
inning
against
the
other
team’s
fire-breathing
closer.
That
will
happen
more
often
if
you
place
top
overall
batters
in
the
Nos.
1
and
2
positions,
meaning
they
will
be
the
37th
and
38th
batters
of
the
game.
Even
if
those
lineup
spots
come
up
in
the
eighth
inning
in a
close
game,
that’s
still
a
high-leverage
situation
against
a
top
reliever,
just
probably
not
the
closer.
2.
Don’t
build
an
offense
over-reliant
on
hitting
home
runs
to
win.
On
the
whole,
you
will
face
stronger
pitching
staffs
in
the
postseason,
and
high-quality
staffs
typically
feature
pitchers
who
don’t
have
as
many
natural
home
runs
units
or
ballpark
diamonds
on
their
cards.
Also,
evidence
presented
by
SOM
World
suggests
you
will
see
fewer
hitter’s
parks
in
October,
further
depressing
home
run
chances.
These
conditions
can
be
hazardous
for
the
homer-happy
team.
Additionally,
relying
on
home
runs
to
win
becomes
a
lower-probability
strategy
if
your
team
falls
behind
early.
While
the
home
run
may
be
the
ultimate
equalizer
in
baseball,
hitting
one
in
the
late
innings
against
a
wave
of
high-leverage,
strikeout-machine
relievers
has
become
a
decreasingly
poor
strategy.
3.
Your
lefthanded-hitting
slugger
might
be a
mark
for
opposing
managers.
In
the
early
days
of
my
Strat
career,
I
built
offenses
around
Adam
Dunn,
Curtis
Granderson
and
other
lefthanded
hitters
who
would
trash
the
below-average
righthanded
starters
and
relievers
they
would
see
regularly
during
the
season.
But
the
roles
reversed
in
the
postseason,
when
Dunn
and
Granderson
became
the
marks
for
other
managers.
The
reason
is
simple:
For
the
majority
of
power-hitting
lefthanded
hitters,
the
left-on-left
platoon
split
favors
the
pitcher
to
such
an
extent
that
the
outcome
of
the
at-bat
is
nearly
a
foregone
conclusion:
automatic
out.
And
the
bad
news
for
batters
like
Dunn
or
Granderson
is
that
nearly
every
playoff
team
will
have
a
lefthanded
reliever
who
allows
few
hit
or
on-base
chances,
and
he
will
be
available
for
all
crucial
late-inning
situations.
Consider
this:
The
top
20
left-on-left
relievers
in
the
2016
set
average
about
7
hit
chances,
13
on-base
chances
and
37
strikeout
chances
versus
lefties.
The
best
way
to
protect
yourself
in
these
situations
is
to
either
(1)
focus
on
low-strikeout
lefthanded
hitters
who
have
lots
of
hit
chances
versus
lefties
on
their
card,
or
(2)
stock
your
bench
with
righthanded-hitting
"enforcers"
to
discourage
your
opponent
from
bringing
his
lefty
reliever
into
the
game
for
fear
that
reliever
will
be
pitted
against
a
powerful
righty
batter.
If
you
have
a
good
team,
then
you
probably
have
such
righty
batters
lying
around
for
platoon
usage.
4.
Don't
forget
to
pack
strong
defensive
backups
at
shortstop
and
catcher.
Like
many
managers,
I
like
to
prioritize
defense
at
shortstop
and
catcher,
even
if I
have
to
accept
poor
hitting
in
the
deal.
Ideally
I’ll
have
a
shortstop
with
at
least
a 2
range
rating
and
a
catcher
with
at
least
a —2
arm.
One
reason
I am
willing
to
overlook
offense
at
these
positions
is
because
acquiring
shortstops
and
catchers
who
can
hit
is
often
a
cost-prohibitive
strategy.
Furthermore,
I’m
typically
not
picking
high
enough
in
the
draft
to
select
the
top
prospects
at
these
positions.
That’s
OK,
because
as
long
as
you
get
defense
from
shortstop
and
catcher,
you
can
work
around
those
players’
batting
deficiencies.
But
to
do
so
you
need
to
be
able
to
pinch-hit
with
impunity
for
your
light-hitting
shortstop
and
catcher,
both
of
whom
will
typically
be
batting
seventh,
eighth
or
ninth
in
the
lineup.
The
best
way
to
feel
secure
about
pulling
your
plus
defensive
shortstop
or
catcher
from
the
game
is
to
have
another
shortstop
with
2
range
and
catcher
with
a —2
arm
on
the
bench
to
serve
as
substitutes.
Overall,
it’s
a
fine
idea
to
stock
a
strong-armed
backup
catcher,
regardless,
because
a —2
or
—3
arm
behind
the
plate
will
pair
well
with
most
closers,
who
often
struggle
to
hold
runners
close.
Selected
closers
with
their
hold
ratings
in
the
2016
set:
Wade
Davis
(+4),
Dellin
Betances
(+9),
Kenley
Jansen
(+5),
Aroldis
Chapman
(+5)
and
Craig
Kimbrel
(+9).
5.
Playoff
batteries
typically
have
a
better
than
average
ability
to
control
the
running
game.
Catchers
for
playoff
teams
usually
have
strong
arms,
and
starting
pitchers
for
those
teams
often
have
good
hold
ratings,
particularly
in a
20-team
league.
This
combination
can
dampen
the
impact
of a
stolen
base-centric
offense
in
the
playoffs,
when
successful
steals
will
be
harder
to
come
by.
However,
players
with
great
steal
ability
will
often
be
able
to
capitalize
on
relievers,
who
typically
cannot
hold
runners
as
well
as
starters.
(The
top
30
starters
have
an
average
hold
rating
of
about
0,
while
that
rating
for
the
top
30
relievers
is
about
+2.)
Additionally,
speedy
players
are
important
to
offensive
functionality
because
they
are
more
likely
to
advance
from
first-to-third
or
from
second-to-home
on
base
hits.
Those
runs
add
up,
so
don’t
overlook
team
speed.
Jus
don’t
count
on
the
stolen
base
being
a
key
postseason
strategy.
6.
Think
of
strikeout
units
as a
clutch
rating
for
pitchers.
While
teams
can
win
in
the
regular
season
without
a
great
strikeout
pitching
staff,
the
postseason
is a
different
animal.
Playoff
lineups
tend
to
become
deeper
because
managers
no
longer
have
to
worry
about
usage
limitations.
Benches
tend
to
be
deeper,
too,
because
teams
can
carry
fewer
pitchers
in
the
postseason.
So
make
sure
your
pitching
staff
comes
armed
with
plenty
of
strikeout
units,
for
the
strikeout
truly
is
the
pitcher’s
best
friend.
A
third
strike
requires
no
assist
from
the
defense
and
always
prevents
base runners
from
advancing.
A
well-timed
strikeout
can
absolve
many
sins.
Think of how frustrated you feel when your No. 3 and No. 4 batters strike out with a runner in scoring position to end an inning. Having a high-strikeout staff can inflict that pain on your opponent. Because base runners are going to happen, you want to be the team whose pitching staff strands the most opposing runners in scoring position.