** Welcome to "The Chuck Stop" with Chuck Tinkler **

"Old Guys Rule!!" (Part I)

   About this time each year, many of us find ourselves faced with a question that has haunted us many a time before: Who should I take in this year’s draft? It is the cause of both hope and trepidation, for the seasoned Strat GM knows the potential for disaster lurks around every corner. For this our fellow travelers have created many aids, helpful tips in our quest to avoid the unavoidable: draft lists, prospect guides, mock drafts, etc. Despite the advancements, the draft remains as unpredictable as ever and leaves us knowing only one thing for sure: It will turn out in ways resembling anything but what was expected.

What may not though often get mentioned, at least, what does not get the degree of attention, is the strategy of trading out of the draft entirely, or, trading draft picks for established players. For as much as we contemplate some variation of "Who should I take?", questions that follow often go something like "Should I trade up? Or down?" or "Should I get out of this thing altogether and trade for someone I know?" And for questions such as these, our intuition tends to be our only guide. These though are questions as important as any, ones to be targeted here, in at least some form, in this article. Our search for answers to questions such as these may too in a small way bring more light to the mystery we’d really like to solve: What is a draft pick really worth?

Consider this: In 2007, Josh Beckett was arguably the best pitcher in the game. He was big, threw hard, and had the kind of mound presence managers dream of. There may have been pitchers with better numbers, but come playoff time, there was no one a team would rather have on the hill than this guy. For proof, one need look no further than Game 1 of the 2007 ALDS, Red Sox vs Angels. It ended up much less a game than an act of total domination. A buddy and I caught it in a bar in Anaheim and it was captivating stuff. Here, before us, did we witness the power of having a dominant ace in your staff. Beckett just went beast on the lowly Halos. It was like he just single-handedly stuffed them back in the box they came out of. It actually was kind of sad in a way…well, not really, we are talking about the Angels here. But it was more than a win or a great pitching performance - he humiliated them. Batters walked back to the dugout with a look on the face that said something like, "Wow. I just got schooled." At least, that’s the way it looked to me that day.

Driving home that night, I was beaming. Not only had I witnessed what was surely an excruciating Angel loss, but I owned Josh Beckett! Me! He was on MY team! I never had good guys like that, seemed like everyone else always did. But here, at last, I had an awesome player! I had the guy that everyone would want! What an incredible feeling it was. Wow. Me. I finally had a great player.

It didn’t of course take long though for my brain to get in there and make a mess of things. Thoughts started coming in like "you know…he could hurt his arm at any moment …" and "guys may be good in real life but not that good in Strat…" and, and this one’s the kicker, "you know…you could get the WORLD for him right now….". Aaaah the potential for more. It is indeed the slayer of many a perfectly good thing in life. But with a horrible team that was going nowhere, what really was there to lose?

The buddy who I’d watched the game with was a Strat partner from way back and was a connoisseur of fine Strat-O cards. This was a guy who had traded for Sammy Sosa just to have him in the same lineup with Mark McGwire. He was as awe-struck by Beckett’s performance that night as I and it didn’t take him long to figure out that thoughts of moving my prized possession had indeed floated about. The offers came in fast and furious. He knew just where to hit me and in the end, I succumbed to a return of three, first round picks - #3, #8, and #12. Along with the #1, the next George Brett, everything was in place for my team to reign for years to come.

Well, friends, that was not exactly the way things turned out. That, actually, wasn’t even close to the way things turned out. But before dissecting the carnage of that deal, let us revisit the question at hand: What is a draft pick really worth? Can we look at a trade, a 28-year old superstar pitcher for three, first round picks, and have an idea of where the probabilities lie before even filling in the names? Well, that’s what this article intends to do. We’ll follow career paths, assign values, and see what we can come up with.

And oh, back to the trade – the return? The "next great Yankee ace", a "five-tool, perennial all-star who should hit 20-25 homeruns annually" and "one of the few pitchers with true ace potential", one that even had a no-hitter under his belt already. With a haul like that, what could possibly go wrong?

Until next time ....