Vol. II, Issue #2 - March 2014 

** Review of the book: "Baseball Prospectus 2014"  **
      (submitted by Wolfman Shapiro with thanks to Joe Hamrahi, CEO of
Baseball Prospectus for granting us a review copy of this amazing guide)

Notes from the Wolfman: - If you have been with our newsletter since August of last year (2013), you may recall that we had the chance to interview Joe Hamrahi, who told us about his love of SOM Baseball and how the game indirectly helped him to create Baseball Prospectus.  Actually Joe is a good friend of our columnist Marc Wasserman and Marc helped to open the door for the interview with Joe. If you missed that interview here is a link to the page:

http://www.ultimatestratbaseball.com/USBN-8-2013/JoeHamrahi-August2013.htm

In any case, just as in January when we reviewed the Bill James Handbook, the main rival to this splendid guide, Strat-o-matic Baseball is indirectly linked because of its impact upon the CEO of Baseball Prospectus.
Its similar to how John Dewan (the president of Baseball Info Solutions who helps Mr. James publish his book) was strongly influenced and encouraged by the SOM baseball game to eventually create his own statistical base company. 

"Baseball Prospectus 2014", the guide, is organized in a different way than the Bill James Handbook but it drew my attention immediately because it also offers predictions on key players for the 2014 baseball season. Which even if you have finished with your league's draft, you still want to know what the experts are saying about the players on your team and their potential. You still need advice on which other players you may wish to trade for in the future to build a stronger team.

So once again I would like to thank Joe Hamrahi for his help to be able to receive a review copy of this guide and for his support of our community and this newsletter. Please find next my review with some comparisons with the Bill Jame's handbook.
 

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Baseball Prospectus 2014 (their 19th edition) is a 576 page book which is published by the Turner Publishing Company (an imprint of the Wiley General Trade) with the contents of the guide being created by the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts. The guide is also edited by Sam Miller and Jason Wojciechowski.  There is a forward given by Gabe Kapler (many of us remember this retired MLB ballplayer) who is now a Fox Sports 1 MLB Analyst. I would like to quote below a small part of what Mr. Kapler had to say about this amazing guide:

"Most baseball fans still get their sports new from the morning newspaper -- or, more accurately, some online adaptation of the morning newspaper -- with an RBIs-and-Ws type of approach to the game. In doing so, these fans are missing an opportunity to truly connect with what happened in each game, and to understand what's like to happen in the next one."

"Folks who actually make decisions in the sport -- the game within the game -- are utilizing different, more advanced and every-changing metrics. They're evaluation players, teams and other executives in ways that a box score and a wire report can no longer decode. Baseball Prospectus is not just a slightly smarter newspaper. It's the window into the world of these executives. In fact, many of the front office minds I'm alluding to use Baseball Prospectus as a resource or a jumping-off point to formulate ideas."

Kapler concludes in the forward: "Like the podcast and the web site, the book you hold in your hand makes content king. The writing style is thoughtfully unapologetic, open-mindedly direct. Most importantly it's refreshingly counter to what else is out there."

A Quick Overview of what the Guide Contains

In the beginning of the Guide, is a section called the Statistical Introduction which gives definitions on some of the new statistical ratings reference in the guide. As we discussed before with the Bill James' Handbook, throughout baseball there are no statistics that have been devised which provide the true metrics on player's performances for both hitters and pitchers. With our modern day computers research companies are now able to track what happens on every pitch and play in the game today.

So for example, for the hitters we can calculate how many extra victories they provide for their teams based on their performance. For pitchers we can track which players get the most ground ball outs. And so these new stats and views are extremely detailed and go on and on. So in this first main section of the guide the new statistics attached to the player's performance are defined as well as how the sections of the book are laid out. Here is the new statistics you will see:

HITTERS: TAv - (True Average, which takes into account the full performance of the player - all the type of hits, stolen bases, on-base, etc ..); BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play); BRR (Baserunning Runs);
FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average); and WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player, which many prediction system use which provides another look at the players value combining also the play's stats on TAv, BR and FRAA).

PITCHERS: BB9 (walks per 9 innings); SO9 (strikeouts per 9 innings); BABIP (same as above);
GB% (percentage of batted balls hit on the ground, 50% or higher is a pitcher who does this well);
WHIP (Walks and Hits allow per innings pitched, this stat is now an accepted stat to value a pitcher's performance); FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher's ERA should look like over
a period of time); FRA (Fair Run Average); WARP (same as above but linked to a pitcher's performance).

PECOTA PROJECTIONS: This is the name that Baseball Prospectus gives to their future projections, it is a system unique to this group. Turner Publishing in promoting this guide says "BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2014 provides fantasy players and insiders alike with prescient PECOTA projections which Sports Illustrated has called 'perhaps the game's most accurate projection model.' "

From the August interview we did with CEO Joe Hamrahi, Marc Wasserman asks:

Marc:  Can you define for our readers what is the PECOTA projections and how are these projections used?

Joe:  "PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002-2003 and introduced to the public in the book Baseball Prospectus 2003."

"PECOTA forecasts a player's performance in all of the major categories used in typical fantasy baseball games; it also forecasts production in advanced sabermetric categories developed by Baseball Prospectus (e.g., VORP and EqA). In addition, PECOTA forecasts several summary diagnostics such as breakout rates, improve rates, and attrition rates, as well as the market values of the players." 

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The majority of the book is based around the players who are expected to be a part of their professional baseball team for the 2014 season. The teams are given in an alphabetical order and this section of the guide is labeled TEAMS. The contributing writer to report on the specific team first gives an overview about the status of this MLB team and what their performance in 2014 is likely to look like. Also on the first page of each team is a table that gives a summary of the performance of the team using various statistics including some of the new stats we discussed above. Plus the top hitter and pitcher by performance in 2013 is listed with their top prospect.

The next section gives each HITTER, who at the time of the publication of the guide (Jan. 2014), was expected to be linked the roster of the team. This include players who have played in the majors before and some of their young prospects who are expected to contribute in 2014. The player's performance in the majors or minors from 2011-2013 is listed with the 2014 PECOTA projection shown last. Under the FRAA column for 2014, the hitter is given a defensive rating, similar to SOM, which ranges from 0 to 8 with 0 being poor and 8 being a superior defensive player. Also there is a comment about each hitter as well, summarizing their past performance and value to the team in the future year.

Following the hitters is the PITCHERS section, where once again each pitcher linked to the team (again both major leaguers and the prospects) at the time of publication, we see their pitching performance from 2011-2013 with the 2014 PECOTA Projection. Again there is a discussion under their stats of their value to the team in the future and the past.

The LINEOUTS section is where the minor league prospects not discussed before in the team section (or even some past major leaguers who are now in the minors for this team) are reviewed along with their statistal performance in the minors for the 2013 season. There is one part of this section used for the hitters and another for the pitchers. Again each minor leaguer is written about briefly under the stats section for their future value to the team in 2014.

The MANAGER section, sighting the team manager's name is shown with various statistics given on the overall performance of the team under their management from 2011-2013, if this manager was with the team during this timeframe. Again some new stats are shown here which are defined in the Statistical Introduction but some of the other statistics you would recognize include how many Sacrifices or stolen bases were attempted and how many times a player was caught stealing as well are given. A brief discussion about the Manager's strategies and performance follows to end the TEAM chapter.

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In the final section of the book we have three articles written by Baseball Prospectus linked writers. They also give the top 101 Prospects for 2014 which is similar to the list I have seen on MLB.com which I discussed before in my strategy article in January as a source to help prepare for the draft of your league team.

In the Appendix (back of the guide), is a section which gives the Codes used for the Minor League teams shown in the appropriate players stats from 2011-2013.  Then the guide has another section which lists the leading hitters and pitchers for 2014 based upon the PECOTA projections with again some extra statistical categories we don't normally see in the newspaper or on-line leader reports. And finally, all the contributors of the book are acknowledged and mention with a brief bio in the next appendix.
 

WOLFMAN'S REVIEW AND THOUGHTS
(including a comparison to the Bill James Handbook)

There is no doubt this is a very comprehensive book. And having found on the internet a number of other prediction systems that I could compare this guidebook to, the Baseball Prospectus 2014 Guidebook is as good as it gets with a lot of extra information from the contributing writers. Therefore, I would highly recommend you consider to add this book to your library. Now here is some of my reasons for this recommendation besides that I greatly respect the great job that Joe Hamrahi and his team do to share key baseball reports with us throughout the season.

First of all you have comments on all of the players which none of the other systems provide for you with the exception of the comments MLB.com gave on the top 100 prospects and also with their predictions for only 800+ MLB players as compared to over 2,100 here.  Plus of course, the book does include other comments about other players in the minors who could help their teams as well, so all aspects of the player personal is discussed for the current season.

The only other book available that I am aware of which gives this type of detail is the Handbook by Bill James. If we compare the predictions offered, again looking at the Bill James handbook, there is far more players evaluated here especially key young players and prospects who are expected to make a contribution to their teams than what I saw with Bill James' book.

Now, no one is going to match Bill James and Baseball Info Solution for the number of statistical views on a player's performance or a team performance but how many views does the average fantasy baseball fan truly need to see to help their teams?  I think Baseball Prospectus has used the most important stats to keep their guide simple and by presenting the players in a team order (with an index in the back) it sits better for us as SOM baseball players as we usually know which players are on which teams with all the information you need to know about a specific player in one place.

There is no doubt if you had this guidebook along with the Bill James Handbook, you probably don't need much else to understand the value of the players going into 2014. The other prediction systems I found on-line give the same information but some of them share a lot more information about minor league players and prospects who we could see come up in the next few years. Since most SOM baseball leagues focus only on the players who receive cards in the latest season, knowing about young players who might become future stars several years down the road is too much information and could be a distraction.

So to conclude, I found the Baseball Prospectus 2014 guidebook full of useful and powerful information. Since the team I have in the CBA (my computer league), the Skokie Wolfmen, is in a re-building mode, this guidebook is going to help me to know which of the young players we have in our control will do well in 2014 as well as what other players we should attempt to trade for before the 2014 MLB season gets really underway to see if we can get more young stars before they become stars.

The only so called disappointing comment I would make about this guide, which BTW I have found with other predictive systems is that I intuitively feel their projections for 2014 were under evaluated. That is to say I believe that for quite a few of the players listed, they will perform better and at a higher level then the PECOTA projections say.  I am not sure how these calculations are made but I do know most of them include looking at a player's performance in year's past and using some average values. 

However if you are serious about building a successful team and you are used to keeping your players from year to year, this is another key key book which is a must have for your library.  Just make sure you give yourself time to read all the wonderful information and insights it has to share and study it well.

Once again I thank Joe Hamrahi for the chance to see their guide in order that I could introduce it to our members. Now we could not make any arrangements to get our members a discount with their publisher, as we had a special deal with the publisher of Bill James book, so if you wish to order your copy Joe said to go here:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1118459237/baseballpro07-20/ref=nosim/

Also you might want to take a look at the on-line reports that BP sends out called Baseball Prospectus Premium -- "the Best Baseball Analysis Anywhere".  Each weekday, BP Premium brings you the best baseball content on the  web from its amazing group of writers. To learn more go to their website at:

www.baseballprospectus.com  (if you use the coupon code of BP2014, get one month for free).

 

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Check out the new e-book by the Wolfman
his first SOM Baseball e-book sharing his
secrets for creating a successful team

(for your draft league or tournament,
click on the cover to read more and
be one of the first to get a copy!)

In Celebration of our
first year of existence
Wolfman is offering his e-book
by donation through March!!

 

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Support the Cause If you are enjoying the content and information our newsletter shares with you, why not support us with your helpful donation for our minor expenses and time?

Contained inside this exciting issue of Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter:
(to view the various interviews, articles, columns and special sections click on the links {underlined} and
this will take you to the appropriate webpage)
 

♦  RETURN TO NEWSLETTER MAIN PAGE

♦  INTERVIEW with BRIAN MCRAE, ex-MLB player with Royals, Cubs and Mets.

♦  INTERVIEW  with JEFF MONTGOMERY, ex-MLB player with the Royals.

♦  SOM BASEBALL WORLD NEWS, a new page to share interesting news related to
Strat-o-matic Baseball.

♦  ARTICLE with JOSEPH BOTTOM & ALAN DAVISON, two SOM Baseball Fanatics
(Joseph & Alan) give permission for us to share with our members their article called "Numbering
the Days - Memories of SOM Baseball", published in the Weekly Standard, Sept. 2013.

♦  ARTICLE with HANK SMITH, former Star Tournaments Commissioner and Ambassador
(Hank was one of the most beloved individuals in the SOM Baseball World and a key for the success of the Star Tournaments. In this report, Hank discusses how he won the 2007 Worlds Tournament held by Star to find their champion. This is the beginning of a new direction by Wolfman Shapiro for his Conventions Column and to honor Hank who passed away in 2013.)

♦  EARLY SOM CONVENTIONS COLUMN with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO -- editor of  "The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" and 2012 CBA Champion, Wolfman takes us back in this article to the ninth national Strat-o-matic Convention in 1980, held in Evanston, IL, at Northwestern University, as the Wolfman and his buddies organize their seventh and final convention via their Chicagoland SOM Club. Unfortunately, due to personal changes in the Wolfman's life at that time, a report of what took place at the convention was not sent to the SOM review. This article will transition us to other types of tournaments that have been offered after 1980 and to honor Hank Smith. Also we hope this column will inspire our readers to help us create a SOM On-line Baseball Convention in the near future.

♦  COMMISSIONER's CORNER with MARC WASSERMAN -- commissioner of the Cyber Baseball Association (CBA) continues his column about what it is like to be a League Commissioner. In this article, he turns his focus to discuss how the start of the CBA began with its Canadian roots and once again is being strongly influence by our Canadian members.

♦  RECOMMEND ON-LINE SOM RESOURCES -- On-line Strat-o-matic and Baseball related websites that offer amazing information, special tools and products to improve your game play that we strongly recommend. In most cases, we have had personal contact with these sources who agree with the principle to work together and help promote each other.

♦  BOOKS TO DIE FOR and Become a BASEBALL GURU -- This page is specifically about special books we are finding that either will expand your insights about the game of Baseball, help you in the creation of your current league teams or with your replays and learn more about the Strat-o-matic Base Game and Game Company's history.  We have a special arrangement with Acta Sports, who is a publisher of a number of great baseball books (including Bill James Handbooks) to offer for our members a 10% discount. We will continue to add more books to this page in the future as we uncover other gems our members should know about.

 

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