Vol. VI, Issue #1 - February 2018

** Interview with Ron Shandler - the leading
authority on Fantasy Baseball, Part I & II **

(Notes from the Wolfman:  It is my pleasure to finally be able to finish the second part of Mr. Shandler's interview which took place last year, to offer our members some more insights into his new book, entitled, The BABS Project: Uncovering the Truth About Winning at Fantasy Baseball and how his new strategies could help you when building your strat baseball team in your leagues.  Also just before I put his second interview together, I received an email from Mr. Shandler giving his current status, that I thought our members would enjoy.)
 

Wolfman:  This month we return with Part II of our interview with the legendary, Ron Shandler.  From my perspective, I see him as the most intriguing baseball strategist for sharing and giving to others (like us, strat gamers), the best understanding of the key strategies one should give attention to for seeing better results in your fantasy baseball league, whether a strat league or not. In this next part of Mr. Shandler's interview, I will be asking more questions of Mr. Shandler about his insights how to win in fantasy baseball as well as give a further discussion about his new system he has introduced last year, called BABS.

Mr. Shandler, welcome back to the Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter.

Now, you have been active for over 30 years, sharing information with others about Fantasy Baseball via your on-line websites, books, articles and  interviews.  From all of this time you have spent doing your analytics with all the playing experience you have, can you share with our members any other key strategies or studies they might wish to perform, to better help them see more success in their various forms of strat-o-matic baseball leagues (note: that we have keeper leagues, all star leagues with the best players over time, retro leagues, draft leagues, etc ...).
 

Ron: I prefer to look at players by breaking down their skills to granular levels. Stats like batting average, OBP, ERA, and even overall measures like OPS contain too much noise. If I want to validate a player's batting average, for instance, I'll look at walk-to-strikeout rate, contact rate, BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), GB-to-FB, etc. and try to paint a picture from that. For pitchers, K/BB as well, strikeout rate, GB/FB, BABIP, etc.

When it comes to age, the only thing I look at are players over 35. In a player's mid-30s, performance spikes almost never repeat and declines rarely reverse themselves. But performance can take any form in all ages younger than that.

Wolfman:  There are many new statistics being used these days (some initiated by Bill James and others) to evaluate the overall worth of a player, which statistical views of a player do you consider are the most important?

Ron:  All the new statistics have a role. Data coming out of Statcast is fascinating. New gauges like spin rate, barrel, etc. provide interesting new views on performance. I'm personally interested to see if anyone can find a way to make these measures more predictive of future performance, rather than just descriptive.

Ron:  I look for a pitcher who will potentially have longevity, and that starts and ends with strikeouts. Deception will get a pitcher just so far; he needs to be able to put a batter away when he has to.
 

Wolfman:  Now Ron, lets move on to the BABS system that you have developed.  You said in your last interview that this was a better way for a fantasy manager to predict a players lasting value linked to drafting such a player before their fantasy baseball season begins.  Here are a few more questions I have about BABS, as it has such a different approach then we are accustomed to, when we rank the players we wish to draft for our teams.

Ron:  The BABS player ratings are not statistical. This reinforces the fact that there are wide error bars around the stats. So players are rated as having below average, moderate, significant and extreme skill. As an example, so far this year it allowed us to assess a player like Khris Davis and determine he has the same underlying asset profile as Giancarlo Stanton, Trevor Story and Gary Sanchez, players typically drafted ahead of him. That is how you uncover profit.

2) In order to create BABS, it wasn't total clear in your new book where the data comes from to fill out the BABS evaluation forms - is there a detail procedure given somewhere that is easy to follow our members can read?  Do you have examples your website, taking a newbie to BABS through the calcuations and data to use.  Does the BABS system have some final numeric value that is given to each player so we can compare one player to another?

Ron:  Nope. No numbers. BABS slots players into asset groups, and then ranks them based on how the marketplace is drafting them. Here are two articles that describe the process in a bit more detail:

http://ronshandler.com/dangers-chasing-profit/

http://ronshandler.com/embracing-the-grey/

3) I am not sure if I understood your last point correctly Ron. However, I believe I had read previously that if a fantasy gamer were to become a member of your website, then this individual would have access to the various evaluations of the current MLB players that you have already done using BABS.  If my understanding is correct, would you speak more about these evaluations you have done?

Ron:  Yes, members of RonShandler.com have access to our complete database of player ratings, spreadsheets, forums and regular articles about BABS and baseball analysis in general.

4) Is there any other aspects of the BABS evaluation system that you would like to expand upon that was not covered by my earlier questions?

Ron:  So far, I've just talked about the "asset" side of the balance sheet. Each player is also assessed for "liabilities" as well. This allows you to look at two players with similar asset profiles and differentiate between them based on risk factors such as injury history, experience, age, etc.

Wolfman:  And finally Ron, is there any final comments overall, you wish to share with our members that is linked to key strategies or analytics you have personally utilized to help you with your own personal success in the leagues you have participated in?  Keys that could help our members in their overall play with their fantasy baseball team(s), whether this might be linked to strat-o-matic or not.

Ron:  We have found that the BABS system has value for many types of fantasy formats, including simulation games like Strat. Though we don't evaluate defense, the rest of a player's asset/liability profile provides gamers with a truer view of potential performance.

Wolfman:  Can you finally tell our member on your new website, what type of materials and information they can find and what they receive in addition if  they become your member?

Ron:  A one-year membership to RonShandler.com includes the "The BABS Project" PDF eBook, which describes the system in detail, plus:

       • BABS ratings, rankings and cheat sheets for 2017 (2018?)

       • Ongoing BABS analyses in preparation for draft day and  beyond.

       • Ron Shandler's insights 1-3 times per week,  including all his
         ESPN Insider columns

       • Downloadable versions of all the worksheets and  spreadsheets

       • Members-only message boards

       • Access to all the reports in the new BABS Database

       • In-season updates, general commentary and more